Anyway, I lost around 3.5 buy ins to him, and I definitely think he played better than me. He's a good person to analyse because he didn't seem to be doing anything particularly amazing, but he's obviously a good hu player.
I thought I'd include his stats here as it may help with hands and I also want to think about a good strategy against him. (I had to upload them and link it as for some reason I can't get it so you click on the picture and they go bigger).
So the biggest things he was doing were:
1. opening nearly 100%
2. 3-betting a hell of a lot (more than 22% early)
3. always c-betting in 3-bet pots
4. barreling in single raised pots
To counter each of these I should:
1. 3-bet and flat more. Against this guy he was folding to 3-bets a lot so I should be 3-betting trash hands like 94s and 64o, which leaves me a wider flatting range of hands like J8s, 65s, etc. As long as my fold bb to steal is under 67%, he can't open any two profitably. I definitely think it's better to put more pressure on than that though as they have trash so so often.
2. Firstly I can min raise so he wins less when I fold and his 3-bet should smaller and I can defend more. Then I can 4-bet more. It's really important to pay attention to shown down hands to get an idea of their flatting range here. This guy was flatting a lot as well as 3-betting, so chances are his 3-bet range is still pretty polarised. This means 4-bet bluffing him should work pretty well (which it did). Another adjustment here is just to tighten up my btn open so that I just have a stronger average hand when opening.
3. There are a few things I can do here. I think I should be raising a lot more flops as he has a really wide range for betting. This means I need to be doing it with top pairs as well, and so it's probably a good idea to be flatting AA/KK to his 3-bets (which I didn't as I was 4-betting so much I felt I needed to balance) in order to have a stronger raising range. On dry boards I should be flatting a lot of top pairs as he's likely to barrel given his tendencies in single raised pots. If he's barreling too often then flatting the flop in order to shove raise the turn becomes a decent option with a variety of hands.
4. This is actually the one I had the most trouble with. I started off by check raising him a lot (just the way it worked out with hands/boards), and therefore I decided to check raise quite a lot of my good top pair hands as well. This leaves my check calling range weaker and I don't know if he knew this or not but he definitely made it tough on that weaker range. Towards the end of the match I started just check calling strong top pairs in order to call down, but even that had it's drawbacks as boards would run off poorly often and still make it tough. Also, if I'm flatting a wider range with hands like 97s in often, I'm going to hit a lot of middle pairs and it's going to be hard to show them down cheaply against this guy.
It seems like 4 should be really exploitable as he's barreling so often and I know he has nothing a lot, but every time I play against a guy like this I struggle to exploit it. This is something I definitely need to work on, and incorporate more into my own game. He was also good at showing up with it when I did call. This could just be luck, but I expect he was aware of gameflow and the spots I'd likely look him up.
Ok onto the hands for today...
There's about $400 left in stacks on the river. Do you think I can profitably bluff here? He was folding a bunch to 3-bets, so I think his range for getting to the river is QJs, KQ, AQ, 77, not sure about 55, maybe a KJs that floated. I wasn't convinced he gets there with 99 or TT, and I'm not sure what other hands I can expect to see. I think a Q finds a call a decent amount here giving I'd been 3-betting a decent amount, so I think checking is probably best?
On the river his hand obviously looks like Ax a lot. Is this a good spot for an overbet? I guess my question is, if I'm trying to get Ax to look me up are they more likely to do so when I overbet or bet normally? It seems like Ax would call a normal bet a lot, therefore I wouldn't bluff that way, so if I wanted to bluff I'd have to overbet, therefore a good player should work this out and be more likely to call Ax to an overbet. Is this overthinking or good thinking?
He not folded that often to my c-bets in 3-bet pots so I suspected he might be a floater. I didn't really have any good reads though. On the turn I can definitely bet again for value but I didn't think there were many hands I could get 1/2 more streets out of, compared to quite a few hands that may have floated and now want to bluff. When I check call the turn I rep 9x, A high type of hands so I think it's definitely feasible for him to barrel the river as well. What do you think of my line here?
Here's one where he triples. I think it's a fairly trivial call when I river two pair as he has more Ax combos that he might be trying to level me with (this was fairly late on and he'll know that I'm semi-frustrated with his barreling). I'd like to know what the weakest hand you call here is. Against a lot of people, K8 should = K4 here. I don't think it does against this guy as I think he will be able to value bet AQ like this sometimes. However, he gets there with a ton of bluffs too. If I hadn't hit two pair would you have called this?
Thanks!
EDIT - Realised I should be including results from yesterday's hands:
In this one he turned up with 73. I actually think looking this guy up was good and it really felt like his range was going to be way skewed towards bluffs.
Here he called the turn with K6o no club. I think my play was decent here too - given he had this hand he can have a ton more that don't improve and probably fold.
Ok so I anaylsed the stats before I looked at anything else and here are my conclusions:
ReplyDeleteYou can exploit his 100% opens by 3betting him even more. He was folding 75% and only 4bet 2%, which suggests as far as facing 3bets he was still in his comfort zone.
Similarly the second way to exploit 100% opens is to check raise more flops. You had great success check raising flops, but only did it 11 times. He is barrelling yet only went to showdown 17%. I mean his barrel stats are fucking high dude, you need to make thinner call downs. Also, part of the flop adjustment for check raising more is taking the portion of your range that you normally peel the flop with and turning it into air/bluffs to prevent yourself facing barrels.
You only lead twice in 581 hands, leading hands you don't want to check raise, but have good situational back door outs also neutralises his high cbet %. Leading things you don't want to call because of his barrel frequency is a good alternative to check raising. You didn't test this out.
Nice to see you were 4betting him to counter his 3bets.
His flop check raise is high so you might have been cbetting too wide. The fact he is only leading 40% of turns also makes me think this even more because people lead turns a higher % if you are checking back more.
It appears from the stats you only double barrelled 7 times? This can't be right?!
So lets link with your 4 points:
Point 1 - 3bet and flat more. So 100% opens both statements are true you should 3bet and flat more.
What were you 3betting out of interest? At a guess mine would be up to 30+% until he adjusted and if he didn't then i'd 3bet every hand until he adjusted. I have a feeling you were more like 15%.
The hands i'd choose to 3bet would be Kxs, Qxs, Jxs then all connectors, 1 gappers and 2 gappers and 3 gappers and not so much 94s unless he just isn't adjusting and we can profitably 3bet any hand (because he is folding). Given that his range is stronger than ours post flop i'd pretty much c/f every flop we whiff.
I'd counter the "As long as my fold bb to steal is under 67%, he can't open any two profitably" argument with - this isn't true if he is owning you in position like he was.
Point 2: Min raising.
22% isn't that high of a 3bet % to just start min raising, but if you experiment with that and maybe limping and you find that he plays worse in these spots than you, then of course you should do this until he adjusts enough that you are no longer exploiting him. Myself and Bobbo (obviously) much prefer 4bet bluffing him though, which you did.
Point 3 and 4: these are covered by what i already wrote. If you are struggling to get to showdown with top pairs on middling boards i'd start check raising those for value. Like Qxx is easier to get to showdown with than others because there are fewer overcards ldo.
My friend SH ;) plays like this he plays 100% opens unequivically, cbets 75%+ then pots every turn and every river turning every hand into a bluff and I had problems with boards running out bad constantly. He was crushing me in this 1 specific area. At the beginning of our match I check raised like a beast and had a shit ton of success with it. Then I played 4 sessions without check raising trying to exploit his barrels. I made too many incorrect river folds from boards running out badly for this to be successful. It wasn't until I started check raising flops again did I regain control of the match post flop.
I'm analysing the hands then looking at your notes after:
ReplyDeleteHand 1: standard flop and turn generally. When he calls the turn tho he has a bluff catcher and given how the board ran out he never folds a Q and whether he folds the middling range is debatable given how many draws whiffed, given the board ran out semi good for bluffing and given that he shouldn't call the turn without planning on calling the river. personally I check.
Hand 2:
Overbet looks good. However, good way to find this out btw is to bluff these spots and see what success you have.
Hand 3: Bit of a weird hand. What Rob calls a type 0 flop. Psr is 6. Looks like he is defending a strongish range as is and once you show down the junk in hand 1,therefore your cbet isn't going to get a ton of credit and I check fold the flop. Once I bet the flop, I think a turn bet is mandatory and a river shove by you required too. I don't understand why you gave him the lead and any event even though you did I still seems like you have to call it off because you have tp in a 3bet pot in a spot where you look weak by only calling the turn.
Edit: So now I read what you think it seems fine once you choose to bet the flop.
Hand 4: If he hadn't of overbet I'd probably shove the river fwiw and any two pair that I got there with so obviously when he overbets mandatory call. I'd call any Ace on the river and since he should be polarised on the river I'd call some kings but fold a lot of things that are weaker even though they should be technically the same hand. My thinking there is a somewhat decent spot for him to fire three with as a bluff and he should be polarised.
hand 1: I'd check river if I had my sane hat on, ie in a vacuum.... I honestly don't know, I've written and deleted an answer about a dozen times now. I'm really torn- I guess if he's loose enough to call twice with 88-99, but that's a small small part of his range really, and if this is the case then 7x is just as likely. Don't think a Q ever folds obviously. hmm
ReplyDeletehand 2- I do think an overbet is transparent for value when you triple barrel an Ace high board.... I think AJ even can find a fold. So, in that sense would it make a sick bluff spot as an overbet? Yes it would a mon avie.
hand 3- well, without going on too much about balancing I really hate not protecting the turn barrel range here. Like, in his shoes having seen this hand I'm not going to respect future overcard barrels, whether I should or not 'cos you readjust is another matter but it's actually hard to readjust because it's hard to make pairs on the turn.
Having said that, VS UB regs who I have literally played a zillion hands with, I like it as a one off creative play to rep 9x and PPs 55-88. I don't know what he reps here at all, I literally just always expect bluffs. So, I like.
Hand 4- I wouldn't call this with K4 no.. I actually think he's pretty nutted here a ton, the narrative is this: 'I bet flop, and barrel the Ace. On the river, Dodgy thinks that I'm bluffing a ton because it's a level 1 basic spot to barrel when the ace turns, when in actual fact I realise that dodgy himself is going to have a floated Ace a lot, thus actually making it a somewhat suicidal spot to overbet triple barrel, thus I'll do it for value.' I'd expect 2 bluffs here, not here.
I'd call AJ prolly and hate it, AQ and not love it, AT prolly find a crying fold.