I called and was shown A2. I thought it was a fairly trivial call, but need to check right now.
I called and got shown AQ. Again I thought it was fairly standard, but I'm not sure now. I think it probably has to be a call as he might shove worse for value sometimes, and if he check raised something that's now a pair and draw he could well shove it.
Again I called and got shown 22. I think this is a call still as his value range is really narrow, and he shouldn't play his value hands like this usually.
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So I think that maybe I'm stacking off/paying off too lightly. Maybe I need to fold more. I'll try and focus in on hands with these sorts of decisions for the next couple of days probably.
Here are today's:
This guy seems a fairly tight regular. I've seen him flat KQo from the bb against a btn open, he's 3-bet my iso raise and folded to a 4-bet, and I've also seen him bluff twice oop after the flop was checked on 653AT. So he is capable of bluffing.
On the turn here it's just weird to me. It's another spot where I'm just sort of confused as to ranges. I feel like he should check raise his strong hands on the flop given it's 3-way, the middle guy folds, and I c-bet from utg 3-way making my range stronger. If that's true, then the only value hands he can have on the turn are 86s and A6s. It's fairly unlikely he calls 86s on the flop, so that leaves two combos of A6s.
However, do people play draws this way? I mean, he can have quite a few combo draws, and with the 2nd flush draw hitting he can have more now, plus he can have a pair and a flush draw.
I should note that he timed for a fair while before shoving. Do you call or fold?
This one's against a good, pretty aggressive regular who often plays higher I think. He plays pretty loose so has a wider range here preflop than most regulars. He's seen me check the flop as the pfr a decent amount. I called him on the flop and river with AK on 85576 once and was right and since then he hasn't really been stabbing the flops that often. I've also seen him check back the flop and raise the turn when I lead once.
So when he checks back the flop and flats the turn I think his range is any pair under Tx, and sometimes trips (although I think he raises strong trips sometimes). I doubt he has Tx as I think he bets that. My range can be pretty wide in his eyes by the river I think, but I do think he'd expect me to bet Qx if I rivered it. Given that, I'm confused as to what his big bet means. It seems like it either is trying to get me to fold my obviously weakish range, or it's trying to level me into a call. I feel like he has to have 7x exactly to make this bet as I can't see how he can have Qx, and I don't think he has Tx (or bets it so big if he did).
However, he does have showdown value when he calls the turn, so he has to be turning something into a bluff for me to be good. Call or fold? Or raise I guess?
This player's a regular who does some weird things. He's lead for half pot on the river oop after the turn checked through with A8 on KK8cc 5J. He can flat A8s from the bb against a co raise (although this doesn't mean he flats AXs v my utg from the sb of course). He can float the flop ip fairly lightly.
So on the river I think he can still have 88, 55, 66, and then maybe A8s, and he can probably have AK as he doesn't 3-bet much. This seems like a really great spot for a check raise from him though as AQ is so close to the top of my range and it's not an easy call at all. However, he probably expects most 2/4 regs to be suspicious enough to look him up with AQ and AJ here. Of course, I'm often using the ace as a bluff card in his eyes too though, so even if he does think I'll sometimes call with AQ then he might still bluff raise. But then his 99 hands would be good. Yada yada.
Call or fold? Or raise?!
Hand 1 I'd call and not love it, yes AQ prolly gets raised on the flop, and also PF gets squeezed. I think for sure people play draws this way (some obv aren't capable), ie KTdd, JTdd, 97dd, or just other random flush draws. I think check shoving a draw here is brilliant when you think of how wide your bet folding range is. Call.
ReplyDeletehand 2: for me, on the turn your bet is for nothing more than protection and thus only needs to be like $18 or something. I'd bet the flop as well, granted it's a standardish check spot, but ideally we need to bet for protection and your GS gives you licence to call a raise imo.
As played on the river, I think it might even be a thin ATs that didn't bet the flop for deception or didnt want to get CR and now knows it's good. Especially after your history of looking him up once I just don't expect to see a bluff again in the near future. Given that, jamming is fun and I might do it. I wouldnt call though.
Hand 3, AK definitely in his range VS your UTGr, I don't always 3bet AK there these days as blinds VS utg looks so insanely strong it's just an overrep (incidentally find those 19%+ utg raisers and 3bet shit from the blinds). So there's a decent number of combos, six AK, one A8s, three 88, three 55 = 13. Granted you can shave some off based on tendencies but it's certainly not 'show me that single possible combo' territory.
Given the rainbow flop, he basically must be turning a pair into a bluff to be doing this and you being ahead. Still only a fairly small % of guys capable of this, and based on that, and 13 combos, I fold.
Ak - I cant fold this, esp given he is capable of bluffing and it's a decent way to play a draw (fold equity ftw) esp if you are thinking of folding AK.
ReplyDelete99 - easy fold, I expect he has a boat and checked back the flop to let you catch up or was a hero on the turn with AQ. If he wanted to bluff he bluffs the flop usually and he isn't vbetting worse and shouldn't feel the need to turn a pair into a bluff.
AQ - Crying fold. It would be unusual for him to turn a pair into a bluf when you either have an Ace or nothing, making a bluff raise unnecessary.
My 2c